We had a number of people inquire about how large former President Trumps margin of defeat really was. We know the number is near 6.9 million votes in total but because of population growth, that really provides very little context.
So we decided to do some research and here is what we found.
Top 10 Smallest Margins of Victory in a US Presidential Election:
By Popular Vote Percentage:
The most rational way to evaluate how strong a vote is use ‘vote to population’ percentage. As you can see in the first table, Biden came in as the 14th least supported President in US History but he did better than Trump (2016), Bush (2004), Bush (2000), Carter (1976), Nixon (1968) and Kennedy (1960).
In fact if you consider only the 19 elections after World War II, Bidens support in the general population comes in at very high number 7. He is in the top 40% of all Presidents in the modern era.
“… Biden Won — Pretty Convincingly In The End
…It’s not a landslide, by any means, but this is a map that almost any Democrat would have been thrilled about if you’d shown it to them a year ago.
…Extrapolating out from current vote totals, I project Biden winning the popular vote by 4.3 percentage points and getting 81.8 million votes to President Trump’s 74.9 million, with a turnout of around 160 million. This is significant because no candidate has ever received 70 million votes in an election — former President Barack Obama came the closest in 2008, with 69.5 million votes — let alone 80 million.” SOURCE
| Year | Candidate | Party | Popular vote Margin % | Popular vote Margin | Loser | |
| 1 | 1824 | John Quincy Adams | D.-R. | -10.40% | -38,221 | Andrew Jackson |
| 2 | 1876 | Rutherford Hayes | Rep. | -3.00% | -252,666 | Samuel Tilden |
| 3 | 2016 | Donald Trump | Rep. | -2.10% | -2,868,686 | Hillary Clinton |
| 4 | 1888 | Benjamin Harrison | Rep. | -0.80% | -90,596 | Grover Cleveland |
| 5 | 2000 | George W. Bush | Rep. | -0.50% | -543,816 | Al Gore |
| 6 | 1880 | James Garfield | Rep. | 0.10% | 1,898 | Winfield Scott Hancock |
| 7 | 1960 | John F. Kennedy | Dem. | 0.20% | 112,827 | Richard Nixon |
| 8 | 1884 | Grover Cleveland | Dem. | 0.60% | 57,579 | James Blaine |
| 9 | 1968 | Richard Nixon | Rep. | 0.70% | 511,944 | Hubert Humphrey |
| 10 | 1844 | James Polk | Dem. | 1.50% | 39,413 | Henry Clay |
| 14 | 2020 | Joe Biden | Dem. | 2.90% | 6,900,000 | Donald J. Trump |
By Popular Vote Total:
By votes, Biden is number 47 out of 59 elections making his popularity far more than average for a winning candidate:
| Election # | Year | Candidate | Party | Popular vote % | Popular vote Margin % | Popular vote Margin | Loser |
| 1 | 2016 | Donald J. Trump | Rep. | 46.10% | -2.10% | -2,868,686 | Hillary Clinton |
| 2 | 2000 | George W. Bush | Rep. | 47.90% | -0.50% | -543,816 | Al Gore |
| 3 | 1876 | Rutherford Hayes | Rep. | 47.90% | -3.00% | -252,666 | Samuel Tilden |
| 4 | 1888 | Benjamin Harrison | Rep. | 47.80% | -0.80% | -90,596 | Grover Cleveland |
| 5 | 1824 | John Quincy Adams | D.-R. | 30.90% | -10.40% | -38,221 | Andrew Jackson |
| 6 | 1880 | James Garfield | Rep. | 48.30% | 0.10% | 1,898 | Winfield Hancock |
| 7 | 1796 | John Adams | Fed. | 53.50% | 6.90% | 4,611 | Thomas Jefferson |
| 8 | 1812 | James Madison | D.-R. | 50.40% | 2.70% | 7,650 | DeWitt Clinton |
| 9 | 1800 | Thomas Jefferson | D.-R. | 61.40% | 22.90% | 15,378 | Aaron Burr |
| 10 | 1792 | George Washington | Ind. | 100% | 100% | 28,579 | No candidate |
| 47 | 2020 | Joe Biden | Dem. | 50.60% | 2.90% | 6,900,000 | Donald J. Trump |
By Electoral College:
Biden’s win over Trump was the 8th smallest win by Electoral College votes:
| Smallest Victory College | Election # | Year | Candidate | Party | Electoral College Votes | Electoral College % | Loser |
| 1 | 10 | 1824 | John Quincy Adams | D.-R. | 84/261 | 32.20% | Andrew Jackson |
| 2 | 23 | 1876 | Rutherford Hayes | Rep. | 185/369 | 50.10% | Samuel Tilden |
| 3 | 54 | 2000 | George W. Bush | Rep. | 271/538 | 50.40% | Al Gore |
| 4 | 3 | 1796 | John Adams | Fed. | 71/138 | 51.50% | Thomas Jefferson |
| 5 | 33 | 1916 | Woodrow Wilson | Dem. | 277/531 | 52.20% | Charles Hughes |
| 6 | 4 | 1800 | Thomas Jefferson | D.-R. | 73/138 | 52.90% | Aaron Burr |
| 7 | 55 | 2004 | George W. Bush | Rep. | 286/538 | 53.20% | John Kerry |
| 8 | 59 | 2020 | Joe Biden | Dem. | 290/538 | 53.90% | Donald J. Trump |
| 9 | 25 | 1884 | Grover Cleveland | Dem. | 219/401 | 54.60% | James Blaine |
| 10 | 48 | 1976 | Jimmy Carter | Dem. | 297/538 | 55.20% | Gerald Ford |
Least Voter Support For a US President Since WWII
| # | Year | Candidate | Party | Electoral College % | Popular vote % | Popular vote Margin % | Popular vote Margin | Loser |
| 1 | 2016 | Donald Trump | Rep. | 56.50% | 46.10% | -2.10% | -2868686 | Hillary Clinton |
| 2 | 2000 | George W. Bush | Rep. | 50.40% | 47.90% | -0.50% | -543816 | Al Gore |
| 3 | 1960 | John F. Kennedy | Dem. | 56.40% | 49.70% | 0.20% | 112827 | Richard Nixon |
| 4 | 1968 | Richard Nixon | Rep. | 56.00% | 43.40% | 0.70% | 511944 | Hubert Humphrey |
| 5 | 1976 | Jimmy Carter | Dem. | 55.20% | 50.10% | 2.10% | 1683247 | Gerald Ford |
| 6 | 2004 | George W. Bush | Rep. | 53.20% | 50.70% | 2.50% | 3012171 | John Kerry |
| 7 | 2020 | Joe Biden | Dem. | 53.90% | 50.60% | 2.90% | 6900000 | Donald J. Trump |
| 8 | 2012 | Barack Obama | Dem. | 61.70% | 51.10% | 3.90% | 4982291 | Mitt Romney |
| 9 | 1948 | Harry Truman | Dem. | 57.10% | 49.60% | 4.50% | 2188055 | Thomas Dewey |
| 10 | 1992 | Bill Clinton | Dem. | 68.80% | 43.00% | 5.60% | 5805256 | George H. W. Bush |
| 11 | 2008 | Barack Obama | Dem. | 67.80% | 52.90% | 7.30% | 9550193 | John McCain |
| 12 | 1988 | George H. W. Bush | Rep. | 79.20% | 53.40% | 7.70% | 7077121 | Michael Dukakis |
| 13 | 1996 | Bill Clinton | Dem. | 70.50% | 49.20% | 8.50% | 8201370 | Bob Dole |
| 14 | 1980 | Ronald Reagan | Rep. | 90.90% | 50.80% | 9.70% | 8423115 | Jimmy Carter |
| 15 | 1952 | Dwight Eisenhower | Rep. | 83.20% | 55.20% | 10.90% | 6700439 | Adlai Stevenson |
| 16 | 1956 | Dwight Eisenhower | Rep. | 86.10% | 57.40% | 15.40% | 9551152 | Adlai Stevenson |
| 17 | 1984 | Ronald Reagan | Rep. | 97.60% | 58.80% | 18.20% | 16878120 | Walter Mondale |
| 18 | 1964 | Lyndon Johnson | Dem. | 90.30% | 61.10% | 22.60% | 15951287 | Barry Goldwater |
| 19 | 1972 | Richard Nixon | Rep. | 96.70% | 60.70% | 23.20% | 17995488 | George McGovern |
Number of Vice Presidents that became US Presidents:
For those who think President Biden is likely to have Vice President Kamala Harris replace him at some point this short 90 second clip does a great job of explaining the history of VP’s becoming POTUS’:
List of Presidents that Refused To Concede Defeat
While we think that it is very unlikely President Trump will leave office as badly as some pundits are predicting. However he is currently making it clear that he will not concede and if he does not, he will be first President in US History to do so:
| # | Year | Candidate | Party | Voter Turnout | Electoral College Votes | Electoral College % | Popular vote % | Popular vote Margin % | Popular vote Votes | Popular vote Margin | Loser | |
| 1 | 59 | 2020 | Joe Biden | Dem. | 66.9% | 290/538 | 53.9% | 50.6% | 2.9% | 81,800,000 | 6,900,000 | Donald J. Trump |
Complete List of US Presidential Election Results:
In case you wanted some additional detail, here is the list of results for all US Presidential elections:
| # | Year | Candidate | Party | Voter Turnout | Electoral College Votes | Electoral College % | Popular vote % | Popular vote Margin % | Popular vote Votes | Popular vote Margin | Loser |
| 1 | 1788 | George Washington | Ind. | 11.6% | 69/69 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 43,782 | 43,782 | No candidate |
| 2 | 1792 | George Washington | Ind. | 6.3% | 132/132 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 28,579 | 28,579 | No candidate |
| 3 | 1796 | John Adams | Fed. | 20.1% | 71/138 | 51.5% | 53.5% | 6.9% | 35,726 | 4,611 | Thomas Jefferson |
| 4 | 1800 | Thomas Jefferson | D.-R. | 32.3% | 73/138 | 52.9% | 61.4% | 22.9% | 41,330 | 15,378 | Aaron Burr |
| 5 | 1804 | Thomas Jefferson | D.-R. | 23.8% | 162/176 | 92.1% | 72.8% | 45.6% | 104,110 | 65,191 | Charles C. Pinckney |
| 6 | 1808 | James Madison | D.-R. | 36.8% | 122/175 | 69.7% | 64.7% | 32.3% | 124,732 | 62,301 | Charles C. Pinckney |
| 7 | 1812 | James Madison | D.-R. | 40.4% | 128/217 | 59.0% | 50.4% | 2.7% | 140,431 | 7,650 | DeWitt Clinton |
| 8 | 1816 | James Monroe | D.-R. | 23.5% | 183/217 | 84.3% | 68.2% | 37.2% | 76,592 | 41,852 | Rufus King |
| 9 | 1820 | James Monroe | D.-R. | 10.1% | 231/232 | 99.6% | 80.6% | 64.7% | 87,343 | 69,878 | John Quincy Adams |
| 10 | 1824 | John Quincy Adams | D.-R. | 26.9% | 84/261 | 32.2% | 30.9% | -10.4% | 113,142 | – 38,221 | Andrew Jackson |
| 11 | 1828 | Andrew Jackson | Dem. | 57.3% | 178/261 | 68.2% | 55.9% | 12.3% | 642,806 | 140,839 | John Quincy Adams |
| 12 | 1832 | Andrew Jackson | Dem. | 57.0% | 219/286 | 76.6% | 54.7% | 17.8% | 702,735 | 228,628 | Henry Clay |
| 13 | 1836 | Martin Van Buren | Dem. | 56.5% | 170/294 | 57.8% | 50.8% | 14.2% | 763,291 | 213,384 | William Henry Harrison |
| 14 | 1840 | William Henry Harrison | Whig | 80.3% | 234/294 | 79.6% | 52.9% | 6.1% | 1,275,583 | 145,938 | Martin Van Buren |
| 15 | 1844 | James Polk | Dem. | 79.2% | 170/275 | 61.8% | 49.5% | 1.5% | 1,339,570 | 39,413 | Henry Clay |
| 16 | 1848 | Zachary Taylor | Whig | 72.8% | 163/290 | 56.2% | 47.3% | 4.8% | 1,360,235 | 137,882 | Lewis Cass |
| 17 | 1852 | Franklin Pierce | Dem. | 69.5% | 254/296 | 85.8% | 50.8% | 7.0% | 1,605,943 | 219,525 | Winfield Scott |
| 18 | 1856 | James Buchanan | Dem. | 79.4% | 174/296 | 58.8% | 45.3% | 12.2% | 1,835,140 | 494,472 | John Frémont |
| 19 | 1860 | Abraham Lincoln | Rep. | 81.8% | 180/303 | 59.4% | 39.7% | 10.1% | 1,855,993 | 474,049 | John Breckinridge |
| 20 | 1864 | Abraham Lincoln | Rep. | 76.3% | 212/233 | 91.0% | 55.0% | 10.1% | 2,211,317 | 405,090 | George McClellan |
| 21 | 1868 | Ulysses Grant | Rep. | 80.9% | 214/294 | 72.8% | 52.7% | 5.3% | 3,013,790 | 304,810 | Horatio Seymour |
| 22 | 1872 | Ulysses Grant | Rep. | 72.1% | 286/352 | 81.3% | 55.6% | 11.8% | 3,597,439 | 763,729 | Thomas Hendricks |
| 23 | 1876 | Rutherford Hayes | Rep. | 82.6% | 185/369 | 50.1% | 47.9% | -3.0% | 4,034,142 | – 252,666 | Samuel Tilden |
| 24 | 1880 | James Garfield | Rep. | 80.5% | 214/369 | 58.0% | 48.3% | 0.1% | 4,453,337 | 1,898 | Winfield Scott Hancock |
| 25 | 1884 | Grover Cleveland | Dem. | 78.2% | 219/401 | 54.6% | 48.9% | 0.6% | 4,914,482 | 57,579 | James Blaine |
| 26 | 1888 | Benjamin Harrison | Rep. | 80.5% | 233/401 | 58.1% | 47.8% | -0.8% | 5,443,892 | – 90,596 | Grover Cleveland |
| 27 | 1892 | Grover Cleveland | Dem. | 75.8% | 277/444 | 62.4% | 46.0% | 3.0% | 5,553,898 | 363,099 | Benjamin Harrison |
| 28 | 1896 | William McKinley | Rep. | 79.6% | 271/447 | 60.6% | 51.0% | 4.3% | 7,112,138 | 601,331 | William Jennings Bryan |
| 29 | 1900 | William McKinley | Rep. | 73.7% | 292/447 | 65.2% | 51.6% | 6.1% | 7,228,864 | 857,932 | William Jennings Bryan |
| 30 | 1904 | Theodore Roosevelt | Rep. | 65.5% | 336/476 | 70.6% | 56.4% | 18.8% | 7,630,557 | 2,546,677 | Alton Brooks Parker |
| 31 | 1908 | William Taft | Rep. | 65.7% | 321/483 | 66.5% | 51.6% | 8.5% | 7,678,335 | 1,269,356 | William Jennings Bryan |
| 32 | 1912 | Woodrow Wilson | Dem. | 59.0% | 435/531 | 81.9% | 41.8% | 14.4% | 6,296,284 | 2,173,563 | Theodore Roosevelt |
| 33 | 1916 | Woodrow Wilson | Dem. | 61.8% | 277/531 | 52.2% | 49.2% | 3.1% | 9,126,868 | 578,140 | Charles Evans Hughes |
| 34 | 1920 | Warren Harding | Rep. | 49.2% | 404/531 | 76.1% | 60.3% | 26.2% | 16,144,093 | 7,004,432 | James Cox |
| 35 | 1924 | Calvin Coolidge | Rep. | 48.9% | 382/531 | 71.9% | 54.0% | 25.2% | 15,723,789 | 7,337,547 | John Davis |
| 36 | 1928 | Herbert Hoover | Rep. | 56.9% | 444/531 | 83.6% | 58.2% | 17.4% | 21,427,123 | 6,411,659 | Al Smith |
| 37 | 1932 | Franklin Roosevelt | Dem. | 56.9% | 472/531 | 88.9% | 57.4% | 17.8% | 22,821,277 | 7,060,023 | Herbert Hoover |
| 38 | 1936 | Franklin Roosevelt | Dem. | 61.0% | 523/531 | 98.5% | 60.8% | 24.3% | 27,752,648 | 11,070,786 | Alf Landon |
| 39 | 1940 | Franklin Roosevelt | Dem. | 62.4% | 449/531 | 84.6% | 54.7% | 10.0% | 27,313,945 | 4,966,201 | Wendell Willkie |
| 40 | 1944 | Franklin Roosevelt | Dem. | 55.9% | 432/531 | 81.4% | 53.4% | 7.5% | 25,612,916 | 3,594,987 | Thomas Dewey |
| 41 | 1948 | Harry Truman | Dem. | 52.2% | 303/531 | 57.1% | 49.6% | 4.5% | 24,179,347 | 2,188,055 | Thomas Dewey |
| 42 | 1952 | Dwight Eisenhower | Rep. | 62.3% | 442/531 | 83.2% | 55.2% | 10.9% | 34,075,529 | 6,700,439 | Adlai Stevenson |
| 43 | 1956 | Dwight Eisenhower | Rep. | 60.2% | 457/531 | 86.1% | 57.4% | 15.4% | 35,579,180 | 9,551,152 | Adlai Stevenson |
| 44 | 1960 | John F. Kennedy | Dem. | 63.8% | 303/537 | 56.4% | 49.7% | 0.2% | 34,220,984 | 112,827 | Richard Nixon |
| 45 | 1964 | Lyndon Johnson | Dem. | 62.8% | 486/538 | 90.3% | 61.1% | 22.6% | 43,127,041 | 15,951,287 | Barry Goldwater |
| 46 | 1968 | Richard Nixon | Rep. | 62.5% | 301/538 | 56.0% | 43.4% | 0.7% | 31,783,783 | 511,944 | Hubert Humphrey |
| 47 | 1972 | Richard Nixon | Rep. | 56.2% | 520/538 | 96.7% | 60.7% | 23.2% | 47,168,710 | 17,995,488 | George McGovern |
| 48 | 1976 | Jimmy Carter | Dem. | 54.8% | 297/538 | 55.2% | 50.1% | 2.1% | 40,831,881 | 1,683,247 | Gerald Ford |
| 49 | 1980 | Ronald Reagan | Rep. | 54.2% | 489/538 | 90.9% | 50.8% | 9.7% | 43,903,230 | 8,423,115 | Jimmy Carter |
| 50 | 1984 | Ronald Reagan | Rep. | 55.2% | 525/538 | 97.6% | 58.8% | 18.2% | 54,455,472 | 16,878,120 | Walter Mondale |
| 51 | 1988 | George H. W. Bush | Rep. | 52.8% | 426/538 | 79.2% | 53.4% | 7.7% | 48,886,597 | 7,077,121 | Michael Dukakis |
| 52 | 1992 | Bill Clinton | Dem. | 58.1% | 370/538 | 68.8% | 43.0% | 5.6% | 44,909,806 | 5,805,256 | George H. W. Bush |
| 53 | 1996 | Bill Clinton | Dem. | 51.7% | 379/538 | 70.5% | 49.2% | 8.5% | 47,400,125 | 8,201,370 | Bob Dole |
| 54 | 2000 | George W. Bush | Rep. | 54.2% | 271/538 | 50.4% | 47.9% | -0.5% | 50,460,110 | – 543,816 | Al Gore |
| 55 | 2004 | George W. Bush | Rep. | 60.1% | 286/538 | 53.2% | 50.7% | 2.5% | 62,040,610 | 3,012,171 | John Kerry |
| 56 | 2008 | Barack Obama | Dem. | 61.6% | 365/538 | 67.8% | 52.9% | 7.3% | 69,498,516 | 9,550,193 | John McCain |
| 57 | 2012 | Barack Obama | Dem. | 58.6% | 332/538 | 61.7% | 51.1% | 3.9% | 65,915,795 | 4,982,291 | Mitt Romney |
| 58 | 2016 | Donald Trump | Rep. | 60.2% | 304/538 | 56.5% | 46.1% | -2.1% | 62,984,828 | – 2,868,686 | Hillary Clinton |
| 59 | 2020 | Joe Biden | Dem. | 66.9% | 290/538 | 53.9% | 50.6% | 2.9% | 75,250,000 | 6,900,000 | Donald J. Trump |
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